Chapter 11: Psychological Manipulation

Cao Haichuan took out his cigarette case again, only to realize once more that he couldn't smoke.

Feeling somewhat irritable, he simply stood up, walked to the large screen, and pointed at the relevant information to continue his explanation.

"As we analyzed before, the iron block mechanism was initially set at a certain distance from his head.

"Wei Xinjian actually had a margin of error of two shots. Even if he chose to shoot the innocent person for those two shots, it wouldn't have caused him any harm.

"In other words, this initial design of the mechanism created a false sense of security for him.

"Compared to the iron block that hadn't yet clamped onto his skull, the revolver with a 1/6 probability of firing a live round was clearly more terrifying.

"This was the first shot; he hadn't fully prepared himself psychologically for the act of 'shooting himself.'

"'What if the first shot is a live round? A 1/6 probability isn't low.' Driven by this thought, he was highly likely to choose to shoot the innocent person for his first shot.

"Conversely, if the iron block had been pressed tightly against his head from the very beginning, he might have made a more rational choice for that first shot."

Everyone nodded one after another; this was a detail they hadn't considered before.

Jiang He asked curiously, "Then what about the second and third shots?

"He should have been mentally prepared to shoot himself by then, right?

"Besides, he showed obvious hesitation during the second shot."

The programmer, Cai Zhiyuan, spoke up: "Officer Cao, I think I understand. Let me explain this part.

"Actually, it's still a matter of probability.

"Because the probability of being hit on the first shot is 1/6, the probability on the second shot is 1/5, and so on.

"If the previous shot was a blank, the probability of being hit on each subsequent shot is higher than the one before it.

"Therefore, once he chose not to shoot himself on the first shot, he would fall into regret—much like the concept of sunk costs—which would further influence his judgment.

"It also made him more hesitant with every subsequent shot.

"When he aimed at himself for the second shot, driven by 'sunk costs,' he would have many other thoughts. For example, the probability of being hit on this shot is higher than the last one; what if the game designer intentionally put the bullet in the second chamber?

"From a rational perspective, this worry makes no sense and doesn't help in assessing the situation at all.

"But in a life-or-death decision with a five-minute countdown, it's very difficult for a person to remain rational. These tiny pieces of misinformation easily interfere with his thinking, leading him to take chances.

"Because if he continued to shoot the innocent person on the next shot, even if it were a live round, he still wouldn't be harmed.

"The same logic applies to the third shot; the sunk costs and the changing probabilities would further influence his decision-making.

"By the time he finished the first three shots, Wei Xinjian's head was clamped by the iron block, and he was plunged into immense regret, but by then, it was clearly too late."

Cao Haichuan nodded approvingly: "Exactly, that's it.

"You explained the specific probabilities, which is clearer than my original thought.

"But overall, our views are consistent."

However, immediately after, Cai Zhiyuan fell into confusion.

"But even if we don't consider the first three shots and only look at the last three, as long as he knew the answer to the Monty Hall problem, he should have been able to survive.

"If he shot himself on the fourth and fifth shots and the innocent person on the sixth, his head would be clamped by the mechanism at most one more time, and he wouldn't necessarily die."

Cao Haichuan shook his head slightly: "First of all, Wei Xinjian might not have known the Monty Hall problem.

"He might not have understood the changing probabilities at all, and the increased probability of being hit on the fourth shot made him even more afraid to pull the trigger on himself.

"Secondly, the information that 'the fifth shot is a blank' wasn't mercy from the designer; it was a death warrant."

Cai Zhiyuan was even more puzzled: "How so?"

Cao Haichuan pointed to the information on the screen

"Wei Xinjian hesitated during the fourth shot.

"Why did he hesitate at that moment? I believe it was a completely different situation from the second shot.

"It wasn't a probability issue.

"It was that Wei Xinjian had developed a desire to die."

Everyone was surprised: "A desire to die?"

Cao Haichuan nodded: "That's right, because by this time, the iron block mechanism had already compressed inward once.

"With a fractured skull and increased intracranial pressure, Wei Xinjian was actually in extreme pain.

"The pain from the iron block's compression outweighed the 1/3 threat of being shot, so he might have developed a desire to die just to end the pain as quickly as possible.

"And here is the most interesting part

"If he had actually done that, he wouldn't have died.

"But that was clearly not what the game designer wanted to see."

Everyone suddenly realized.

Under that intense pain, if Wei Xinjian had impulsively fired three shots at himself, wouldn't he have survived?

In that case, his survival wouldn't have been due to repentance or mercy, but rather the despair and irrationality of wanting to commit suicide.

The trial would have lost its meaning.

Cao Haichuan paused for a moment, then continued: "Therefore, the game designer intentionally inserted a hint here to reawaken his will to live.

"This ensured the accuracy of this 'trial.'

"Wei Xinjian originally needed to gamble on two bullets to know the location of the live round, but now he only needed to gamble on one. In other words, the iron block would move inward at most one more time.

"At this point, he actually had two choices

"One was to shoot himself, with a 1/3 probability of death; the second was to shoot the innocent person, with a 2/3 probability that the iron block would move inward another 1.29cm.

"A 1.29cm compression would be very painful, but it wouldn't kill him immediately.

"With the fifth and sixth bullets determined, the second choice clearly offered a higher survival rate."

Cai Zhiyuan understood completely now, and he added

"So, after his will to live was reawakened, he ultimately chose to shoot the innocent person.

"But the game designer had set a trap here.

"There were no live rounds in the gun at all, which meant Wei Xinjian completely misjudged the final shot: without a live round, the iron block mechanism would still continue to move.

"Wei Xinjian thought he could use the final shot to kill the innocent person and escape, but in reality, he had sealed his own death."

Everyone present fell silent; they needed time to digest this information.

Li Renshu felt a chill run down her back: "So, this game was actually interconnected. From the moment Wei Xinjian decided to shoot the innocent person on the first shot, he was already on a path of no return.

"And his idea of choosing to kill the innocent person on the final shot to save himself became his death warrant.

"This is a highly selective game.

"Rational people, selfless people, people with compassion—any of these types would have had a very high survival rate.

"That is why it is called the 'Redemption Roulette.'

"It looks like a game of luck, but in reality, it is a trial, a test.

"If Wei Xinjian could have changed his perspective in such a desperate situation and cherished the life of the innocent, even if he had only shot himself once, he could have survived, and his soul could have been redeemed.

"But unfortunately... he never repented until his death."

The group fell into a long silence once more.

Clearly, after their brains had been working at high speed, the dual exhaustion of body and mind began to set in.

At the same time, the death in the game left them with a severe lack of a sense of security.

With these two factors combined, most people lost the desire to continue speaking.

Fu Chen keenly sensed this: "Let's leave it at that for today. I think everyone should go get some rest.

"Although I don't know what this 'New World' is, I've always been one to adapt to circumstances, and I hope everyone else is the same.

"Regardless, we are in a community with different professions and identities, and we can complement each other in our division of labor. No matter what problems we encounter, we can pull together."

Everyone stood up one after another and returned to their respective rooms.

(End of chapter)